I have returned following an eventful few weeks combining work and leisure in the Horn of Africa1.
I extend my sincere apologies for the temporary disruption of my weekly Five Minutes of Fame series2, which was necessitated by a combination of technological limitations and travel-related challenges. However, I intend to compensate for this interruption by sharing insights from my writings elsewhere and by producing additional content in this space soon. See earlier note, also here, here and there. And stay tuned.
My focus during this trip was on the education sector within the region, beginning with Amoud University in Borama and extending to Addis Ababa University, Dire Dawa University, Haramaya University in Harar, as well as Jigjiga and Hargeisa Universities. A more in-depth discussion on the role of education in the region’s development will be presented in subsequent publications.
Additionally, I have closely examined the preparatory processes and the underlying political dynamics surrounding the 38th African Union (AU) Summit. This post constitutes the initial installment of a broader series of articles that will critically analyze various aspects of the AU in the coming months. Here goes.
Is the African Union fit for purpose?
The 2025 African Union Commission (AUC) elections marked a significant moment in the African Union’s (AU) institutional development. The election of Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, as the new Chairperson, succeeding Moussa Faki of Chad, reflects the political dynamics within the AU and the evolving role of regional representation in the organization. While the election process underscores the AU’s commitment to democratic governance and regional inclusivity, it also raises questions regarding the effectiveness of its institutional framework in addressing contemporary challenges. The central issue remains whether the AU is fit for purpose in the 21st Century? The short answer is not quite, however, reflecting on the recent election (see below) might help in fashioning a considered answer.
The question of whether the AU is fit for purpose in the 21st century requires an assessment of its institutional structure, governance effectiveness, and ability to address continental challenges. While the AU has achieved notable progress in fostering continental unity, its effectiveness in responding to economic, security, and governance crises remains contested.
Achievements of the African Union
Economic Integration Initiatives: The AU has spearheaded initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), aimed at boosting intra-African trade and economic growth.
Peacekeeping and Conflict Resolution: The AU has played a key role in mediating conflicts in regions such as the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and the Great Lakes, deploying peacekeeping missions under the African Standby Force (ASF).
Institutional Strengthening: The AU has developed frameworks for governance, including the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), to promote democratic accountability.
Key Structural Weaknesses and Challenges
Limited Enforcement Power: The AU lacks strong enforcement mechanisms to hold member states accountable for governance failures, human rights violations, or unconstitutional changes of government.
Financial Dependence on External Donors: The AU remains heavily reliant on funding from external partners, including the European Union and China, raising concerns about its financial sustainability and independence.
Inadequate Response to Political Instability: The AU has struggled to address military coups and governance crises, as seen in recent political upheavals in West Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Bureaucratic Inefficiencies: The AU’s decision-making processes are often slow and hindered by complex bureaucratic structures, reducing its responsiveness to urgent challenges.
Electoral Dynamics and Candidate Profiles
The recent electoral contest featured three prominent candidates: Mahamoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti, Raila Odinga of Kenya, and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar. Youssouf, with a tenure as Djibouti's Foreign Minister since 2005, brought extensive diplomatic experience and a platform emphasizing regional cooperation and self-reliance in addressing security challenges. Odinga, a veteran Kenyan politician and former Prime Minister, advocated for deeper economic integration and infrastructure development, aiming to leverage Africa's internal resources for prosperity. Randriamandrato, with a background in economics and international relations, focused on economic resilience, regional diplomacy, and reducing foreign influence on the continent.
The election process was notably competitive, extending to seven rounds of voting. Youssouf secured the chairmanship with 33 votes in the final round, indicating a strategic consolidation of support among member states. Odinga's bid, despite his significant political stature and endorsements from various African leaders, was unsuccessful, suggesting complex inter-regional alliances and perhaps reservations about his recent political alignments.
Is one country, one Vote suitable in the 21st century AU?
The AU operates on a one country, one vote principle, ensuring equal representation for all 55 member states, regardless of their economic size, population, or geopolitical influence. While this approach aligns with the AU's foundational goal of unity and equality among African nations, its suitability in the 21st century is increasingly debated.
Advantages of One Country, One Vote
Equitable Representation: Smaller nations have the same influence as larger economies, preventing dominance by more powerful states like Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt.
Strengthening Pan-Africanism: This voting system fosters collective decision-making and encourages regional cooperation without economic or military superiority dictating outcomes.
Preventing External Influence: By ensuring that all countries have equal voting power, the AU reduces the risk of external geopolitical actors manipulating key nations to influence decisions.
Criticisms and Limitations
Disproportionate Influence of Small States: Countries with significantly smaller populations and economies, such as Djibouti or Eswatini, wield the same power as economic giants like Nigeria and South Africa, raising concerns about the legitimacy of decision-making structures.
Potential for Vote-Trading and Political Bargaining: The system can lead to strategic alliances where smaller nations trade votes for diplomatic or financial incentives, often undermining the true intent of fair representation.
Limited Alignment with Economic Contributions: Larger economies that contribute more to AU funding may feel underrepresented in policy decisions, reducing their commitment to AU-led initiatives.
The Need for Reform?
Given the AU’s evolving role in economic integration, security, and governance, discussions on reforming the voting system have emerged. A possible alternative could involve a weighted voting system based on economic size, regional influence, and contributions to AU programs. However, such a change risks alienating smaller nations and contradicting the principles of equality and unity that the AU was built upon.
Implications for African Union Policies and Reforms
Youssouf's election arrives at a critical juncture for the AU, which is navigating numerous challenges, including political instability, armed conflicts, and the imperative for economic integration. His emphasis on enhancing regional cooperation and advocating for African-led solutions to security issues aligns with ongoing efforts to operationalize the African Standby Force and reduce dependency on external interventions. However, the AU's historical struggles with resource mobilization and member state commitment pose significant hurdles to these objectives.
The electoral outcome also underscores the AU's rotational leadership principle, aiming for equitable regional representation. With East Africa securing the chairperson position and North Africa the deputy chairperson role, the AU maintains its commitment to regional balance. This structure is intended to foster inclusivity but can also lead to complex political negotiations, as evidenced by the protracted election process.
The election's outcome also reflects the intricate interplay of national interests and regional alliances within the AU. Odinga's defeat, despite substantial support, may signal a preference among member states for leadership perceived as more neutral or less entangled in domestic political controversies. This decision could influence the AU's internal cohesion and its external partnerships, particularly in how it navigates relationships with global powers amid shifting geopolitical landscapes.
The 2025 AUC elections serve as a microcosm of the broader challenges and aspirations facing the African Union. The selection of Mahamoud Ali Youssouf as Chairperson encapsulates a desire for experienced, regionally balanced leadership capable of steering the continent through complex political and economic terrains. The one country, one vote system remains a cornerstone of AU democracy, yet its relevance in an era of economic and geopolitical shifts continues to spark debate.
The effectiveness of Youssouf’s tenure will largely depend on his ability to galvanize member states toward cohesive action, secure sustainable funding for AU initiatives, and implement reforms that enhance the Union's responsiveness to the continent’s multifaceted challenges. Whether or not the AU should reconsider its voting structure to reflect economic and demographic realities remains an open question—one that could shape the institution’s long-term viability.
This is my personal view and as always, your comments and feedback are welcome.
tech and travel challenges, not lack of trying, delayed earlier posts..
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