Oil, Elections, Startlink, Shabab...
Someone told me, it is all happening in the .... eh, uhm in Somalia (see footnote)
Al-Shabaab's Resurgence Amidst Security Transitions - Al-Shabaab has intensified its insurgency, capturing strategic locations in the Middle Shabelle region, thereby threatening vital supply routes between towns. This resurgence is exacerbated by the transition from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to the underfunded African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), leading to diminished international support. The group's ability to exploit these security vacuums is well known and well documented over the years, it underscores the fragility of Somalia's stabilization efforts. So where to from here? The following has been and still remains my personal view on this complex issue.
A critical factor sustaining Al-Shabaab’s resilience is its entrenched relationship with Somalia’s telecommunications and financial sectors. It has been highlighted over the years that major telecom operators and remittance companies, whether through coercion, tacit complicity, or insufficient regulatory oversight, have inadvertently or deliberately facilitated the group’s financial flows and communication networks. Through secure telecommunications infrastructures they have exponentially enhanced their operational agility and resource mobilization. As long as these critical sectors remain porous and entangled with insurgent financing, military efforts against Al-Shabaab will achieve, at best, transient victories.
A decisive severance between Somalia’s telecom and financial institutions and insurgent networks is imperative. This requires establishing independent regulatory bodies, strict anti-money laundering (AML) frameworks, technological audits of mobile platforms, and punitive measures for corporate non-compliance. The only viable solution is an uncompromising decoupling, i.e. severing all financial and communication links between telecoms, financial institutions, and insurgent networks. Without access to these critical systems, Al-Shabaab would be crippled—starved of resources, blind, and ultimately consigned to history.
Will Starlink's Entry bridge the digital divide? The Somali government's approval of Starlink's operations marks a significant step toward enhancing internet connectivity, particularly in remote regions.
This development holds promise for economic growth, education, and healthcare delivery. However, it also raises concerns about cybersecurity and the potential for increased surveillance, necessitating robust regulatory frameworks to safeguard citizens' rights. It might also lead to more options to access the Internet, make the market more competitive… BUT we have to keep in mind the uncertainty and clear risks of using a product owned by Elon Musk! Caveat emptor… indeed.
A brief(est) history of Donald Trump’s attitude towards Somalia could easily double as a case study in geopolitical inconsistency. From the very beginning, Trump's stance toward Somalia—and Africa writ large—was animated by a deep skepticism, if not outright disdain, toward the continent’s capacity for stability and governance. In 2017, his infamous Executive Order 13769, colloquially called the "Muslim Ban," barred Somali citizens, among others, from entering the United States. Thus, Somalia—a nation already reeling from terrorism and humanitarian catastrophe—was treated less as a partner in need of support and more as a pariah best kept at arm’s length.
By 2020, Trump doubled down, ordering the withdrawal of approximately 700 U.S. troops from Somalia, ignoring warnings that Al-Shabaab would likely fill the vacuum. At the same time, his administration gleefully proposed slashing critical foreign aid programs, seemingly determined to test just how fragile Somalia’s state apparatus could become under concerted external neglect.
Critics warned that such cuts would eviscerate Somalia’s already delicate counterterrorism capabilities—a prediction that, unsurprisingly, needed no crystal ball to foresee.
Then… Houthis, beg yours?
And yet, in a dazzling feat of political amnesia, by April 2025 Trump had pivoted to announcing full-throated support for Somalia against the Houthi rebels. "We will support the Somali People... to end terrorism and bring prosperity to their Country," he proclaimed, as if he had not spent four years pulling out troops, cutting aid, and walling off Somali nationals. What changed? Absolutely nothing—except perhaps the need for a new rhetorical flourish on Trump’s imagination. Whether Trump himself can explain the somersault is a question best left to metaphysics, not policy analysis.
For Somalia’s government, the message could not be clearer—or more cynical. In the words of Thucydides2, etched timelessly into the Melian Dialogue, "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." Somalia is not dealing with a strategic partner grounded in principle, but with a superpower whose policies are animated by transient self-interest. Realism, not sentiment, must guide Somali diplomacy. Great powers do not have friends; they have interests. Pretending otherwise is to confuse survival with naïveté.
Elections in Somalia will be a step toward democratic consolidation - Somalia's plan to hold its first one-person, one-vote local elections in the near future, followed by parliamentary elections in the not too far distance, signifies a move toward democratic consolidation. Nonetheless, the exclusion of key stakeholders such as Puntland and Jubaland from the electoral framework raises questions about the inclusivity and legitimacy of the process. Ensuring broad-based participation is crucial for the elections to contribute meaningfully to national unity and stability.
The Turkey-Somalia Oil Agreement - Sovereignty Versus Development. The recent oil exploration agreement granting Turkey up to 90% of Somalia's oil and gas revenue has sparked significant controversy. Critics argue that the deal undermines Somalia's sovereignty and mirrors neo-colonial exploitation, while proponents contend it could catalyze economic development. The lack of transparency and parliamentary oversight in the agreement's formulation further complicates its reception and potential benefits. But why so much interest on this? For decades, I have been hearing and reading oil in Somalia, hence my limited interest on this.
Having worked in the energy sector for four years in the Pacific region—specifically in Papua New Guinea—and a further three years with the Kuwait Oil Company, I am well positioned to appreciate the intensity of the current debates unfolding across Somali social media platforms and within the diaspora, particularly among those who have established careers in oil companies in Scandinavia and beyond. But the times are a changing… and “Oils Ain’t Oils” anymore, if you are old enough to recall the Castrol advertising campaign. But more seriously….
Here is my considered view on the global oil industry, once the unchallenged engine of economic modernity, it is now increasingly regarded as a sunset sector—an industry in terminal, if protracted, decline. Driven by the dual imperatives of climate imperatives and technological disruption, oil’s structural relevance is being steadily eroded. As nations pivot toward decarbonization and renewable energy solutions gain both economic and political traction, the fundamental assumptions underpinning oil's dominance are collapsing. While oil may persist as a residual commodity in the global economy for decades, its zenith has clearly passed. To cling to fossil fuels as a future growth engine is to wager not only against the weight of scientific consensus but against the irreversible trajectory of market evolution. Oil is no longer the future; it is the residue of a receding industrial age. So, to my Somali wantoks, I think we have more urgent and pressing issues to worry about!
Comments, feedback as always welcome. Until then as they say in my neck of the woods, cheerio.
I was listening one of my favorite songs when I was writing this piece…. one of Simon & Garfunkel's single releases in 1967. Paul Simon's many tributes to his hometown of New York City, and was written for the soundtrack of The Graduate, specifically the scene which takes place at the San Francisco Zoo. No link whatsoever to this post, don’t be too creative and please hold your imaginations…
The Greek historian Thucydides clearly expressed 2400 years ago this lesson: When the small island of Melos tried to maintain neutrality in the conflict between the Athenian empire and the rising state of Sparta. The Athenian envoys threatened Melos with destruction if it did not submit, telling the Melians, “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”. Hence the need to be geopolitical realist. Make no mistake about the nature of power, or its illusions. Great powers will always put their interests ahead of principle in dealing with small states