This week has been particularly eventful, both in terms of travel and professional engagement, leaving much to reflect upon. Among the key topics addressed in various forums was the principle of "one person, one vote" (1P1V) for Somalia. For the sake of clarity and to reiterate my position, I firmly believe that 1P1V represents the only legitimate mechanism to ensure genuine representation within the Somali government or any government for that matter. The prevailing system, which relies on selections made by tribal chiefs, undermines the democratic potential of the Somali people and fails to respect their collective intelligence and aspiration for equitable governance; and leads to unintended consequences, like we now have in Kismayo.
Elections…
Somalia is structured as a federal republic, comprising several Federal Member States, each governed by its own president. The table below provides a detailed overview of the presidents of these states, their respective election years, and their tenures in office. This compilation serves to highlight the varying durations of leadership across these states, offering a basis for comparative analysis. Furthermore, it prompts a critical examination of the electoral processes, particularly concerning the credibility and transparency of the election outcomes. Such scrutiny is vital to understanding the political stability and governance structures within Somalia, as well as the implications for its federal system and democratic practices.
This analysis underscores the importance of evaluating the integrity of electoral mechanisms, which are pivotal to ensuring equitable representation and legitimacy within each Federal Member State. The differing periods of leadership could reflect broader dynamics, including the influence of local political structures, external interventions, or challenges inherent to the federal governance model in a fragile state context like Somalia. Being a president for 11 years raises many questions about legitimacy and due processes. But I will leave that thought with you to reflect on.
At the national level…
The "4.5 formula" has shaped Somali politics, emphasizing clan representation but limiting merit-based leadership and inclusivity. Regional and international actors have played significant roles in Somali elections, reflecting the country's dependency on external support. Insurgent groups like Al-Shabaab pose significant threats to election processes, limiting accessibility and increasing risks of violence. Somalia lacks a robust electoral commission capable of organizing and overseeing transparent, nationwide elections.
Somalia's elections and political leadership have evolved significantly since the country's independence in 1960. See Note below1 which summarises the evolutionary process, the journey so far, gives an overview of key presidential figures and the election methods used across different periods, reflecting the challenges and changes in Somalia’s political landscape.
Despite the establishment of a federal government, Somalia’s elections remain indirect, reflecting the continued dominance of clan dynamics and security challenges. Allegations of vote-buying, external interference, and delays have raised concerns about electoral credibility. This indirect system also limits broader public participation in the democratic process.
Future Prospects
For Somalia to progress toward a stable and inclusive democracy, reforms are needed to transition from indirect clan-based elections to direct universal suffrage (one person, one vote, for everyone). Establishing secure environments, fostering national unity, and strengthening electoral institutions will be crucial in achieving credible and transparent elections that reflect the will of the Somali people.
Please note that the political landscape in Somalia is dynamic, and leadership positions can change due to elections, appointments, or other political developments.
And now more urgent news…. Are we there yet?
Yes, we are… it is on! Economic and trade wars are on the cards as Donald Trump Threatens BRICS Countries—Including Russia, India—With 100% Tariffs!
In a post on Truth Social (Trump’s own social media outlet), Trump said the 100% tariff would affect all BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates—until they commit to not creating a new BRICS currency or back another currency that could replace the “mighty” dollar. I quote Trump here ‘ The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy. They can go find another "sucker!" There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any country that tries should wave goodbye to America..’
For more information on this see my earlier posts about US debt and the dominance of the US dollar. There you have it. After Jan 20, 2025 we may all live in interesting times.
About Money and Cryptos…
I will continue writing about this in the next posts before end of the year, in the meantime here I share with you a well known economist who will shed light on the history and future of money. Stay tuned for more on cryptos and CBDCs….
And finally…
I want to thank Dr. Mohamed Ahmed Sheikh Ali (Doodishe), our Ambassador in Qatar who welcomed me and members of the Somali business community attending the Rowad Arab MSEs and Entrepreneurship Conference. Dr. Doodishe, a distinguished figure in Somali politics, previously served as the Minister of Internal Security of Somalia and his diplomatic experience will strengthen the relationship between Somalia and the Gulf countries. He reminded me of the challenges Somalia faces in accessing the Gulf Countries’ markets, whether labor intake or even getting a ‘country of origin’ certificate for our products, i.e. fish, meat, bananas, etc. Stay tuned in future post about this issue.
I enjoyed meeting many Somali business people at the Doha ROWAD event and learnt a lot. As I was leaving Doha, I saw The Charioteer of Delphi displayed at the airport… and this week I will leave you with a bit of history to ponder about… the Delphi!
The Charioteer of Delphi, a life-sized sculpture, was commissioned to commemorate a victory at the Pythian Games. It portrays a young chariot driver presenting his chariot and horses to spectators in celebration of his triumph. Discovered in 1896 near the Sanctuary of Apollo in Delphi, the statue was incomplete, with the charioteer missing his left arm. The original sculpture is housed in the Delphi Archaeological Museum, while a replica, symbolizing ancient Greek civilization, was gifted by the Hellenic Republic to Qatar.
Comments, feedback as always welcome.
1960–1969: Post-Independence Democracy
Presidents:
Aden Abdullah Osman Daar (1960–1967): Elected by the National Assembly as Somalia’s first president following independence.
Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke (1967–1969): Succeeded Osman Daar through a parliamentary vote.
Election Method: Indirect elections were conducted through the National Assembly, consistent with parliamentary systems of the time. Political parties and parliamentary debates played a crucial role in the selection process.
This era marked a short-lived democratic experiment. However, challenges such as clan-based politics and governance inefficiencies undermined stability.
1969–1991: Military Rule
President:
Siad Barre (1969–1991): Came to power through a military coup after the assassination of President Sharmarke in 1969.
Election Method: Elections were effectively suspended as Siad Barre established a military dictatorship, ruling through decrees and authoritarian measures.
Barre's regime abolished democratic institutions and implemented a socialist agenda. Clan favoritism and authoritarian rule exacerbated divisions, eventually leading to state collapse in 1991.
1991–2000: Civil War and Absence of Central Authority
Election Method: No formal elections occurred during this period. Clan factions and warlords dominated, leading to widespread conflict and the fragmentation of Somalia.
This period represents one of Somalia's darkest chapters, with the absence of a central government and the rise of regional administrations and self-declared states like Somaliland.
2000–2012: Transitional Federal Governments (TFG)
Presidents:
Abdiqasim Salad Hassan (2000–2004): Elected through negotiations at the Somali National Peace Conference in Djibouti.
Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed (2004–2008): Elected by the Transitional Federal Parliament in Kenya.
Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (2009–2012): Elected by the Transitional Federal Parliament.
Election Method: Indirect elections were mediated by external actors, including the United Nations and regional organizations. Votes were often conducted by transitional legislative bodies formed through power-sharing agreements.
The transitional governments struggled with legitimacy due to the heavy influence of external actors and clan-based negotiations. Despite progress, Somalia faced continued insurgencies and limited territorial control.
2012–Present: Federal Republic Era
Presidents:
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (2012–2017): Elected by the Federal Parliament in an indirect electoral process.
Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmaajo) (2017–2022): Elected through a similar parliamentary process.
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (2022–present): Reelected, becoming the first president to serve non-consecutive terms.
Election Method: Indirect elections conducted through a complex system involving clan elders and parliamentary representatives. The "4.5 formula," a clan-based power-sharing system, allocates parliamentary seats and thus indirectly determines presidential outcomes.
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